Here is a link to my piece in the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage: “Will there be peace in Nagorno-Karabakh? Two things stand in the way”
This article analyses the effects of the recent violent escalation. It argues that the violence has emboldened hardliners, increased fears and deepened mistrust. It has therefore effectively undermined the proposal currently on the table.
I am grateful to the Monkey Cage for running it.
The original version also included a more prescriptive conclusion. I’m including it here for for anyone interested:
Diplomacy is badly needed but international efforts should focus on creating the conditions for a settlement. An interim agreement may be the best that can be hoped for, but this points to the need for bottom-up processes, confidence-building, and solid international guarantees. The recent agreement to strengthen the ceasefire monitoring is but a small step in the right direction.
The article draws on my project on post-Cold War peace agreements, funded by the British Academy